Wednesday, June 28, 2006
So, the centre-right was less able to bring its supporters to the polls. As David suggested to me, the 20% of 'traitorous' centre-right supporters is probably accounted for by the centre-right's votes in the South (who have less influence in this because fewer of them voted).
In the North, the provincial data now available shows that, within the Northern provinces, the profile of the 'si' voter was quite close to that of the Lega voter - that is, typically resident in the Northern countryside and smaller cities, not in the regional capitals, which all voted 'No', even in Milan.
Technorati Tags: devolution, referendum, casadelleliberta, leganord, mannheimer
This story on the forthcoming parliamentary vote on the re-financing of the Italian mission in Afghanistan. The Partito dei Comunisti Italiani (16 seats in the Camera; 11 in the Senato along with the Greens) has threatened to vote against. It seems that the government may win a majority with the aid of the UDC.
This after two motions of confidence yesterday on two essential decrees - the milleproroghe (a package bill which prolongs the life of certain house-keeping decrees) and the "spacchettamento-ministeri" law (which assigns ministerial portfolios). The motions of confidence were won 160-0, with the opposition abstaining in an attempt to deprive the government of quorum. I find this particularly Italian manouevre quite distasteful. Picture from the vote below:
Tuesday, June 27, 2006
- Voters judged that the referendum would worsen the position of economically disadvantaged regions relative to economically advantaged regions; we should expect the referendum to be lost most heavily in the most economically disadvantaged regions
- Voters judged that the referendum would worsen the position of the South and Islands relative to the Centre and the North, and would worsen the position of the Centre relative to the North; we should expect the referendum to be lost most heavily in the South and Islands, less so in the Centre, and least of all in the North
- Voters followed party cues (1); voters who supported parties of the centre-right should vote for the proposal
- Voters followed party cues (2); voters who supported Forza Italia and the Lega Nord should vote for the proposal
The use of ordinals is a quick-and-easy compensation - we can try and forgive a little fuzziness caused by a big difference in ordinal rankings caused by minimal cardinal rankings.
Hypothesis 1: is broadly confirmed; the difference between ordinal referendum support and ordinal economic standing is less than or equal to two places with the exception of Sicilia, the Veneto, Basilicata, Toscana, and Emilia Romagna. The first two were more likely to support the referendum proposal than economic position would suggest; the remaining three less likely to support the referendum proposal than economic position would suggest. Sicilia and the Veneto are regions in which Forza Italia has considerable strength; Toscana and Emilia Romagna are regions in which the left has considerable strength. Basilicata has been won by the centre-left in the last two regional elections, but is not noted for centre-left strength.
Hypothesis 2: Hypothesis 2 is similar to Hypothesis 1 (since regions in the South tend to be poorer), but is less fine-grained and is subject to similar counter-examples, particularly Sicilia and Emilia Romagna.
Hypothesis 3: Hypothesis 3 tends to fail because the differences in centre-left/centre-right support tend to be much les strong (and so consequent to much greater ordinal confusion) than differences in referendum support.
Hypothesis 4: I haven't yet the disaggregated data to test Hypothesis 4 - but it would have to improve on Hypothesis 3 to be of much interest.
So, perhaps the conclusion should be this: the relative economic position of the regions was a relatively good predictor of their relative support for the referendum proposal, with more economically advanted regions supporting the proposal, except in party strongholds of the White and Red Belt, and in Sicilia.
Berlusconi dopo la sconfitta "Ora proveranno a farmi fuori" - Politica - Repubblica.it: "Al Senato, ad esempio, è già scattato l'allarme. Un plotone di 6-7 senatori potrebbe trasferirsi armi e bagagli nel gruppo misto per poi contrattare con Prodi il sostegno al governo. Senatori provenienti dalle fila centriste, ma anche forziste."
Monday, June 26, 2006
- the proposal was rejected convincingly, with more than six in ten voters disapproving of the law
- the South & Islands rejecting the proposal most strongly, followed by Central Italy, then the North
- Forza Italia strongholds (Lombardy and the Veneto) were the only regions to support the reform
My guesses on the first two questions - and they remain guess es until we can see exit polls with breakdowns of support for the proposal according to party - is that the referendum was lost because it was difficult to explain and because the UDC and Alleanza Nazionale didn't want to spend much time doing so; that the regions which did support the proposal more strongly did so because they were regions full of voters who vote for Forza Italia and the Lega, and were mobilised by those parties.
Granted, Forza Italia can't have convinced in the South. It sweeps Sicily in general elections, but Sicily still voted convincingly against the proposal.
Sunday, June 25, 2006
Saturday, June 24, 2006
Monday, June 12, 2006
Tuesday, June 06, 2006
For all the fuss that Berlusconi's made about the left's 'occupation' of all important posts, the left has been more generous to the right in 2006 than the right was to the left in 2001, when all fourteen commission presidents came from the centre-right coalition. In part, this is because the left doesn't have a majority in all commissions. Industry went to Scarabosio because of the defection of one Senator for abroad, who is on the margins of the centre-left coalition.
The most surprising result in fact comes from the election of Giorgio Benvenuto as president of the Finance commission. Seems the centre-left managed to persuade one centre-right senator to jump ship. Poor whipping on the part of the centre right. They're never going to be able to exploit the centre-left in the Senate if they keep this standard.