Countries that need to fix their media systems

I've been doing some research for a term paper on comparing democracies. Using Coppedge and Reinicke's Polyarchy and Contestation data-set, I've identified those countries which would be perfect polyarchies were it not for their media systems, where government information is privileged. They are:

• Albania
• Botswana
• Cape Verde
• Croatia
• Dominican Republic
• Ecuador
• Guyana
• Honduras
• Israel and the occupied territories
• Kiribati
• Mauritius
• Mexico
• Namibia
• Panama
• Ukraine

These countries are doing something right. That's to say, they score a one on fair elections, freedom of political organisation, and freedom of expression. But they're falling behind in their media systems. As the coding schema for the Coppedge and Reinicke data-set puts it:

Alternative sources of information are widely available but government versions are presented in preferential fashion. This may be the result of partiality in and greater availability of government-controlled media; selective closure, punishment, harassment, or censorship of dissident reporters, publishers, or broadcasters; or mild self-censorship resulting from any of these.

(The countries in the data-set are scored using the US State Department's Human Rights Report).

Mediaset fails to buy ProSiebenSat

Mediaset has been excluded from the short-list of companies competing to buy German TV group ProSiebenSat. Reuters, citing an anonymous source, claims that the exclusion was made on political grounds.

It is not uncommon to argue that Berlusconi's business success is built on political connections rather than business acumen. The contrast between Berlusconi's failure to make headway in the French television market, where he lacks such connections, and his dominance in Italy, is often cited as evidence. Yet it seems clear that such a politicised business strategy carries risks, and seems likely that such a strategy has now become a drag on the group. Mediaset share prices dribbled away their value in anticipation of a centre-left victory in April this year; further expansion abroad is now out of the question, and new markets (TV-over-IP) are less suited to political rent-extraction. The only chance for media entrepeneurs now is to lock customers in through, in Andy Kessler's terms, better pipes; content that forms a unit capable of locking in viewers/browsers. And, although Berlusconi was quick to spot the potential of American soaps like Dallas (Rai had the option on the second season and dropped it; Berlusconi picked it up and made it the centrepiece of one of his channels), original content is not Mediaset's strong suit.

New Italian media law announced

Event:
The Prodi government has agreed changes to Italy's framework media law, reducing generous antri-trust limits set by the previous Berlusconi government.

Significance:
Public broadcaster Rai and private corporation Mediaset - owned by former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi - enjoy a de facto duopoly over Italian television. Each has three of seven national terrestrial channels, and their advertising affiliates control over 90% of all television advertising. The law requires each organisation to move one channel to digital terrestrial television (where no organisation may own more than 20% of the market), and sets a limit of 45% on advertising sales. Mediaset's advertising arm, Publitalia, currently enjoys a 62% share (source: RepubblicaRadio).

By attacking the commercial interests of Mediaset, the government opens up a political debate with Silvio Berlusconi's party Forza Italia and his centre-right coalition, the House of Liberties. Berlusconi has attacked the law as "banditry".

Timetable:
The design of the law approved yesterday forecasts the transfer of one Rai and one Mediaset channel within 'fifteen months' of the law's passage. Passage through Parliament, however, may be difficult for the government, which enjoys an extremely narrow majority in the Senate. Whilst the government is unlikely to face significant problems within its own ranks, it may be vulnerable to procedural obstacles placed by the opposition.

Obstacles to implementation:
This is not the first time that Rai and Mediaset have been ordered to move channels to digital. A previous reform, which also set limits on publicity, was over-turned by a 1995 referendum. Berlusconi has already called for a referendum should Parliament fail to block the bill.

Beneficiaries:
Should the law pass, and should two analogue channels become vacant in spring 2008, it is unclear who would wish to take up two national channels with only four years before digital switch-over and the shut-down of the analogue network. The most immediate and significant impact of the law would be to damage commercial prospects for Mediaset and Rai. Mediaset shares have dropped 1.5% this morning; their performance over the past three months has been dismal.