Marco Follini leaves the UDC

Marco Follini, former secretary of the UDC, has decided to leave the party, founding his own group, l'Italia del mezzo.

This was not unexpected - Follini had left his post as party secretary a while ago, and had carped about his party's policy and Berlusconi's leadership of the centre-right. What is surprising, at least to me, is the willingness of Italian politicians to found new parties which have negligible electoral prospects.

RTÉ responds to government's proposed media reform

In response to the previously announced government consultation exercise, RTÉ has responded to the government's draft broadcasting bill with a fair amount of red ink. Politically relevant concerns are the following:

1. In order to fall under companies legislation, RTÉ is to be constituted as a single-shareholder company with one shareholder, a cabinet minister. RTÉ argues that this would mark the change from public broadcasting to state broadcasting, in that RTÉ has not, since the passage of the 1960 Broadcasting Act, been part of the state apparatus.
2. the general scope for intervention - whether by ministers or by the new Broadcasting Authority Ireland (BAI)
3. The chief executive of the BAI should be appointed by the minister after public consultation.
4. a new right-of-reply is far more generous than existing rights guaranteed by the Broadcasting Act 1990;
5. the provision for RTÉ's independence is couched with the qualification, "subject to the qualifications of the act", which, on RTÉ's reading, mean that RTÉ is not independent in many areas of its management;
6. The requirement that the director ensure "gathering and presentation [of news] which is accurate and impartial according to the recognised standards of objective journalism" - a phrase which I hadn't noticed before - is impossible vague.

Trust and politicians' ability to leave things be

As a sideline, I've been reading about trust in governing institutions. Does the political independence of broadcasters depend on whether politicians trust the broadcasters to report truthfully or accurately? If so, might existing low levels of trust prevent an improvement in the relationship?

Working through one wonderful article on LBJ's psychology, I came across the term 'sinister attribution error': "the tendency for individuals to overattribute hostile intentions and malevolent motives to others' actions". It struck me as a perfect description of Italian politicians' attitude towards television coverage, as essentially motivated by the grinding of partisan axes.

Unfortunately, the literature on trust suggests that phenomena like sinister attribution error are difficult to eradicate. As Diego Gambetta has written, low trust "prevents people from engaging in the appropriate kind of social experiment" necessary to invalidate false beliefs about the objects of distrust. So, LBJ was unable to check whether Bobby Kennedy though himself a threat to LBJ (he didn't) precisely because he thought Bobby Kennedy was a threat to LBJ.

New Director-General for Sveriges Television

Eva Hamilton, SVT's Head of Fiction, was last Friday appointed Director General of the Swedish public broadcaster. With experience in SVT's News department, she comes to SVT after having worked for Aftonbladet ("independent social democrat") and Svenska Dagbladet ("independent, conservative") [Source for these judgements: BBC Media monitoring].

Past appointments in RTVE

Now that RTVE Director-General Carmen Caffarel is calling on politicians to name high-quality independent members of RTVE's future Board, I thought it might be useful to see whether, in the past, Directors-General have frequently been tossed out by over-mighty boards. I finally found this list of previous Directors-General. Let's have a look:

1. Fernando Castedo (Jan '81 to Oct '81)
2. Carlos Robles (Oct '81 to July '82)
3. Eugenio Nasarre (Jul '82 to Dec '82)
4. Jose-Maria Calvino (Dec '82 to Oct '86); appointed after PSOE victory of Dec '82;
   
5. Pilar Miro (Oct '86 to Jan '89); appointed four months after election of June '86;
   
6. Luis Solana (Jan '89 to Feb '90);
   
7. Jordi Garcia (Feb '90 to May '96); survived election of 1993; appointed four months after election of (late) October 1989;
   
8. Mónica Ridruejo (May '96 to Feb '97); appointed two months after PP victory of 1996;
   
9. Fernando López-Amor (Feb '97 to Nov '98)
10. Pío Cabanillas (Nov '98 to May '00);
    
11. Javier González (May '00 to July '02); appointed two months after PP victory of 2000;
    
12. José Antonio Sánchez Domínguez (July '02 to April '04);
    
13. Carmen Caffarel (Apr '04 till present); appointed one month after PSoE victory in 2004 elections;
    

Thirteen directors-general in fifteen years. An almost perfect "political vulnerability score' - Alex Cukierman's index for the likelihood that an office will change hands within six months of a change in government (the exception may be Jordi Garcia, who survived the transition from a majority PSOE government to a minority government). A hard tradition to break?

New Italian media law announced

Event:
The Prodi government has agreed changes to Italy's framework media law, reducing generous antri-trust limits set by the previous Berlusconi government.

Significance:
Public broadcaster Rai and private corporation Mediaset - owned by former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi - enjoy a de facto duopoly over Italian television. Each has three of seven national terrestrial channels, and their advertising affiliates control over 90% of all television advertising. The law requires each organisation to move one channel to digital terrestrial television (where no organisation may own more than 20% of the market), and sets a limit of 45% on advertising sales. Mediaset's advertising arm, Publitalia, currently enjoys a 62% share (source: RepubblicaRadio).

By attacking the commercial interests of Mediaset, the government opens up a political debate with Silvio Berlusconi's party Forza Italia and his centre-right coalition, the House of Liberties. Berlusconi has attacked the law as "banditry".

Timetable:
The design of the law approved yesterday forecasts the transfer of one Rai and one Mediaset channel within 'fifteen months' of the law's passage. Passage through Parliament, however, may be difficult for the government, which enjoys an extremely narrow majority in the Senate. Whilst the government is unlikely to face significant problems within its own ranks, it may be vulnerable to procedural obstacles placed by the opposition.

Obstacles to implementation:
This is not the first time that Rai and Mediaset have been ordered to move channels to digital. A previous reform, which also set limits on publicity, was over-turned by a 1995 referendum. Berlusconi has already called for a referendum should Parliament fail to block the bill.

Beneficiaries:
Should the law pass, and should two analogue channels become vacant in spring 2008, it is unclear who would wish to take up two national channels with only four years before digital switch-over and the shut-down of the analogue network. The most immediate and significant impact of the law would be to damage commercial prospects for Mediaset and Rai. Mediaset shares have dropped 1.5% this morning; their performance over the past three months has been dismal.

CSA creates a new category

Earlier this year, the CSA found it had a problem when considering UDF deputies who were dissenting from the government line. Did they count in the government's share of screen-time according to the 'rule of three thirds'? The 'sages' have now resolved the difficulty, with the creation of a new category - neither government, nor opposition. This new category will not, it seems, be relevant for the rule of three thirds.