Thursday, December 28, 2006

Countries that need to fix their media systems

I've been doing some research for a term paper on comparing democracies. Using Coppedge and Reinicke's Polyarchy and Contestation data-set, I've identified those countries which would be perfect polyarchies were it not for their media systems, where government information is privileged. They are:
  • Albania
  • Botswana
  • Cape Verde
  • Croatia
  • Dominican Republic
  • Ecuador
  • Guyana
  • Honduras
  • Israel and the occupied territories
  • Kiribati
  • Mauritius
  • Mexico
  • Namibia
  • Panama
  • Ukraine
These countries are doing something right. That's to say, they score a one on fair elections, freedom of political organisation, and freedom of expression. But they're falling behind in their media systems. As the coding schema for the Coppedge and Reinicke data-set puts it:
Alternative sources of information are widely available but government versions are presented in preferential fashion. This may be the result of partiality in and greater availability of government-controlled media; selective closure, punishment, harassment, or censorship of dissident reporters, publishers, or broadcasters; or mild self-censorship resulting from any of these.

(The countries in the data-set are scored using the US State Department's Human Rights Report).

Wednesday, December 06, 2006

Invented story leads to real investigation

About two weeks ago, Enrico Deaglio alleged that the centre-right had attempted to steal the 2006 election by counting blank and invalid ballots as votes for the centre-right. Deaglio's argument didn't add up: the centre-right only had control over the projections at the Ministry of the Interior; the real votes were summed from the sub-totals of the several regional electoral commissions. Indeed, Deaglio was prosecuted for, in effect, a breach of the peace.

Yet as a consequence of Deaglio's arguments - which seem unconvincing and have been found to be so by the judicial system - the Italian Senate Committee for Elections has moved to recount the blank, wasted, and spoilt votes in seven regions.

It's not clear why these particular regions were chosen. They include regions won by the left and by the right, by narrow margins and by huge margins:
  • Campania - 0.5% gap in favour of the left
  • Calabria - 14.2% gap in favour of the left
  • Lazio - 1.1% gap in favour of the right
  • Lombardia - 14.3% gap in favour of the right
  • Puglia - 4% in favour of the right
  • Sicilia - 17.3% in favour of the right
  • Toscana - 22.6% gap in favour of the left
Would be interesting to get a breakdown of the number of blank and spoiled ballots by region, and see whether the number of contested ballots in Campania and Lazio could result in a re-allocation of seats. Unfortunately, the Interior Ministry doesn't seem to have this data.

Tuesday, November 28, 2006

Rehearsals for departures

One departure, one arrival, and one return from the brink:
  1. Michael Grade left the BBC. The decision was broken, as I understand it, in the Telegraph, and confirmed this morning. No news yet on salary, but it may top £2m. No news yet on how how he will be replaced. A former surgeon, acting Chair Chitra Bharucha looks unlikely to step up to the top seat. I suggest the BBC will go from someone outside of the media who is happy with a regulatory rule. A former financial regulator, for example, would be a wonderful touch in the run up to the licence fee settlement.
  2. Luis Férnandez was designated President of RTVE. In a boost for the broadcaster, Fernandez was nominated with the agreement of both the main parties. The remaining nominations to the council will be made on Monday. The rapid turnaround - one month of inter-regnum - augurs well for RTVE's future governability; though the demand of the United Left and nationalist parties to be represented on the 12 member party may still mean that nominees are closely identified with particular parties.
  3. Silvio Berlusconi collapsed at a campaign rally before recovering. Rai quickly apologised for a comedy sketch mocking Berlusconi. Having not seen the sketch, I can't comment on whether it was in bad taste or not. I suspect it was (it would be hard for it to be otherwise), but Rai has certainly done well to applaud fulsomely and quickly.

Thursday, November 23, 2006

News from Flanders

Variety has the most ridiculously over-blown style. Here it describes the sacking of VRT CEO Tony Mary after the Flemish government got pissed off with Mary's sale of a popular TV show to a pay-per-view competitor. Piet Van Roe replaces Mary.

Directors-General of European PSBs


Measures of central bank independence have sometimes used the rate of turnover of Central Bank Governors as an indicator of de facto independence (which, it turns out, is reasonably strongly correlated with de jure independence). How does it work for PSBs? The following table gives the average time in post of a number of PSB Directors-General.

















Public broadcasterAverage tenure of DG
NRK [Norway]9 years 8 months
ABC [Australia]8 years 10 months
YLE [Finland]8 years 6 months
DR [Denmark]
7 years 2 months
BBC [UK]6 years 8 months
CBC [Canada]5 years 4 months
ORF [Austria]5 years 1 month
NHK [Japan]
4 years 6 months
Rai [Italy]
2 years 10 months
PTV [Poland]2 years 10 months
France Télévisions/ORTF
2 years 6 months
Czech TV1 year 11 months
MTV [Hungary]1 year
RTVE [Spain]11 months

Norway

List of Broadcasting Chiefs of Norwegian PSB NRK [from Wikipedia]
(According to his Wikipedia entry, Bernander is a freemason. A nice compliment to Sandro Curzi's remarks about freemasons in Rai, no?)
Average tenure of DG: 9 years 8 months.
Percentage of government changes followed within six months by change of Director-General (Cukierman political vulnerability index): 3/21 = 14.29% [Korvald, Bruntland (I), Syse governments possibly followed by changes, though the timing may be wrong with no more precise dates than these]
Australia

Directors-General and Managing Directors of ABC:
  1. Sir Charles Moses (1935–65)
  2. Sir Talbot Duckmanton (1965–82)
  3. Keith Jennings (1982-83)
  4. Geoffrey Whitehead (1983–86)
  5. David Hill (1986–94)
  6. Brian Johns (1994–99 )
  7. Jonathan Shier (??/03/2000–31/12/2001);
  8. Russell Balding (29/05/2002–20/03/2006); left before the end of his five-year contract
  9. Mark Scott (22/05/2006–present)
Average tenure of DGs, excluding most recent: 8 years 10 months (5 years 9 months if one counts only managing directors)
Cukierman political vulnerability index: 1/11 = 9.09% [Hawke government followed by appointment of Geoffrey Whitehead]
Finland

List of Directors-General of Finnish PSB YLE [from Wikipedia]:
Average tenure of DG, excluding most recent: 8 years 6 months.
Cukierman political vulnerability index: 3/35 = 8.57% (counting changes of Prime Minister; Kekkonen (I), Virolainen, Koivisto (II) governments followed by changes); 1/6 = 16.67% (counting changes of President; Ahtisaari presidency followed by appointment of Wessberg).
Denmark

List of Directors-General of Danmarks Radio [from DR website]
  • Hans Juul Sølvhøj 1961 - 1964
  • Erik Carlsen 1964 - 1967
  • Hans Juul Sølvhøj 1967 - 1976
  • Laurits Bindsløv 1976 - 1985
  • Hans Jørgen Jensen 1985 - 1994
  • Christian Nissen 1994 - 2004
  • Kenneth Plummer 2005 -
Average tenure of DG, excluding most recent: 7 years 2 months.
Cukierman political vulnerability index: 0.
United Kingdom

BBC Directors-General (post-war period only):

Average tenure of DGs, excluding most recent: 6 years 8 months.
Cukierman political vulnerability index: 0.
Canada
Presidents of the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, post-war period only:
Average tenure of Presidents, excluding most recent: 5 years, 4 months.
Cukierman political vulnerability index: 3/13 = 23.07% (Diefenbaker, Trudeau (I) and Chrétien governments followed by changes).
Austria

List of Directors-General of Austrian PSB ORF [from Wikipedia]:
Average tenure of DG, excluding most recent: 5 years 1 month.
Cukierman political vulnerability index: 1/7 = 14.28% (Vranitzky government followed by appointment of Podgorski).
Japan

NHK Presidents [Kaicho], post-Occupation period only [from Wikipedia, Ellis Krauss' Broadcasting Politics in Japan]:
  1. 高野岩三郎 1946年4月26日~1949年4月5日; completed a three year term before introduction of the 1950 Broadcasting Act
  2. 古垣鐵郎 1949年5月30日~1956年6月13日; two three-year terms; prolonged slightly by passage of the 1950 Act
  3. 永田清 1956年6月13日~1957年11月3日; Kiyoshi died in office
  4. 野村秀雄 1958年1月14日~1960年10月17日; Nomura appointed late after LDP factional disagreement
  5. 阿部眞之助 1960年10月17日~1964年7月9日;
  6. 前田義徳 1964年7月17日~1973年7月16日; three-term President, Maeda resigned after patron Satō died
  7. 小野吉郎 1973年7月17日~1976年9月4日; resigned two months into a second three year term
  8. 坂本朝一 1976年9月21日~1982年7月2日; two quiet three-year terms
  9. 川原正人 1982年7月3日~1988年7月2日; two three year terms
  10. 池田芳蔵 1988年7月3日~1989年4月4日; Ikeda resigned on grounds off ill-health
  11. 島桂次 1989年4月12日~1991年7月16日; Shima resigned after annoying certain LDP factions
  12. 川口幹夫 1991年7月31日~1997年7月30日; two quiet three year terms
  13. 海老沢勝二 1997年7月31日~2005年1月25日; resigned after corruption scandals
  14. 橋本元一 2005年1月25日~現在

Average tenure of Presidents, excluding most recent: 4 years, 6 months.
Cukierman political vulnerability index: 1/29 = 3.44% (Ikeda government followed by appointment of Shinosuke Abe).
Average percentage of tenure completed: 87.78%
Italy

Directors-General of RAI:
Salvino Sernesi 1949 1953
Giovan Battista Vicentini 1954 1955
Rodolfo Arata (June) 1956 1960
Ettore Bernabei January 5, 1961 September 18, 1974
Michele Principe May 23, 1975 January 25, 1977
Giuseppe Glisenti January 26, 1977 June 17, 1977
Pierantonino Bertè July 12, 1977 June 18, 1980
Villy De Luca June 19, 1980 July 21, 1982
Biagio Agnes July 29, 1982 February 1, 1990
Gianni Pasquarelli February 5, 1990 July 23, 1993
Gianni Locatelli July 23, 1993 August 3, 1994
Gianni Billia August 3, 1994 December 31, 1994
Raffaele Minicucci January 16, 1995 February 29, 1996
Aldo Materia [1] March 6, 1996 July 15, 1996
Franco Iseppi July 15, 1996 February 8, 1998
Pier Luigi Celli February 9, 1998 February 17, 2000
Pier Luigi Celli [2] February 17, 2000 February 9, 2001
Claudio Cappon February 9, 2001 March 19, 2002
Agostino Saccà March 19, 2002 March 27, 2003
Flavio Cattaneo March 27, 2003 August 5, 2005
Alfredo Meocci August 5, 2005 June 20, 2006
Claudio Cappon June 22, 2006 present

Average tenure of Directors-General, excluding most recent: 2 years 10 months.
Cukierman political vulnerability index: 8/36 = 22.22% (Fanfani (I), Fanfani (III), Moro (II), Andreotti (II), Andreotti (III), Ciampi, Berlusconi (I), Prodi (I), Prodi (II) governments followed by changes).
Poland
Presidents of Telewizja Polska (PTV):

  1. Wiesław Walendziak (Jan 1994 - Apr 1996)
  2. Ryszard Miazek (Apr 1996 - June 1998)
  3. Robert Kwiatkowski (July 1998 - Jan 2004)
  4. Jan Dworak (Feb 2004 - May 2006)
  5. Bronislaw Wildstein (May 2006 - )
Average tenure of Presidents, excluding most recent: 2 years 10 months.
Cukierman political vulnerability index: 2/9 = 22.22% (Pawlak (II), Cimoszewicz governments followed by changes).
France
Presidents of France Télévisions (and before, joint presidents of France 2 and France 3, and Presidents of ORTF):
Average tenure of President/DG of major public channel/group, excluding most recent: 2 years 6 months.
Cukierman political vulnerability index: 5/16 = 31.25% (Messmer, Chirac (I), Mauroy, Bérégovoy, de Villepin governments followed by changes).
Czech Republic

Česká televize, Directors-General:
Ivo Mathé 1. January 1992 1. April 1998
Jakub Puchalský 1. April 1998 31.january 2000
Dušan Chmelíček 1. February 2000 21. December 2000
Jiří Hodač 22. December 2000 11. January 2001
Inter-rim period
11. January 2001 9. February 2001
Jiří Balvín 9 February 2001 27. November 2002
Petr Klimeš (inter-rim director)) 27. November 2002 18. July 2003
Jiří Janeček 19. July 2003 (current)

Average tenure of Directors-General, excluding most recent: 1 year 11 months.
Cukierman political vulnerability index: 2/7 = 28.57% (Tosovsky', Spidla governments followed by changes).
Hungary
Magyar Televizio, Presidents [from EUMAP]
  1. István Nemeskürty (January–April 1990),
  2. Albert Szalacsi Tóth (April–August 1990),
  3. Elemér Hankiss (August 1990–January 1993),
  4. Gábor Nahlik (January 1993–July 1994),
  5. Tibor Szilárd (July 1994),
  6. Ádám Horváth (July 1994–December 1995),
  7. Ferenc Székely (January–September 1996),
  8. István Peták (October 1996–January 1998),
  9. Lóránt Horvát (January 1998–May 1999),
  10. Zsolt Szabó László (May 1999–July 2001),
  11. Károly Mendreczky (July 2001–July 2002),
  12. Imre Ragáts (July 2002–December 2003),
  13. György Pinke (January 2004–February 2004),
  14. Zoltán Rudi (March 2004–
Average tenure of Presidents, excluding most recent: 1 year
Cukierman political vulnerability index: 4/6 = 66.67% (Antall, Boross, Horn, Medgyessy governments followed by changes).
Spain
Directors-General of RTVE:
  • Fernando Castedo (Jan '81 to Oct '81)
  • Carlos Robles (Oct '81 to July '82)
  • Eugenio Nasarre (Jul '82 to Dec '82)
  • Jose-Maria Calvino (Dec '82 to Oct '86);
  • Pilar Miro (Oct '86 to Jan '89);
  • Luis Solana (Jan '89 to Feb '90);
  • Jordi Garcia (Feb '90 to May '96)
  • Mónica Ridruejo (May '96 to Feb '97)
  • Fernando López-Amor (Feb '97 to Nov '98)
  • Pío Cabanillas (Nov '98 to May '00);
  • Javier González (May '00 to July '02)
  • José Antonio Sánchez Domínguez (July '02 to April '04);
  • Carmen Caffarel (April 2004 onwards)
Average tenure of DG, excluding most recent: 11 months.
Cukierman political vulnerability index: 4 / 5 = 80% (all government changes since Suárez followed by changes, except change in 1993 between majority and minority PSOE governments).

Five ways to get the right answer from your independent review of coverage

The BBC announced today a review of its coverage of business. The review - which follows previous reviews of coverage of the European Union and the Middle East - will be conducted by a panel of six of the 'great and the good', and forms part of the new Trust's ongoing Impartiality Project.
These reviews are an invaluable source of data, and, assuming their investigative reach is great enough, may contribute to a more sophisticated understanding amongst BBC content producers of the nature of impartiality across a number of fields.
However, I suspect that the use of these reviews is as much symbolic as actual. In other words: the review process is structured so that clear-cut findings of partiality will be avoided and positive-sum findings of insufficient understanding emphasised. Influenced greatly from a presentation by John Downey and Dominic Wring at a recent conference, here are five ways in which you, the humble public service broadcaster, can structure your inquiry.
  1. Issues that the BBC is already confident about, or which have already been the subject of some previous enquiry, are chosen. In the case of the BBC's review of its coverage of Israel-Palestine, the Governors' review followed a much harsher review conducted by BBC Management (the Balen report). The Governors therefore already had an idea that BBC Management was trying to improve its coverage, and was therefore not concerned that a potential blind-spot might be unearthed. The review of EU coverage had already been fore-shadowed by numerous content analyses by a strange Eurosceptic outfit called Global Britain, which generally arrived at rather tendentious conclusions, but signalled the issue quite clearly.
  2. Panels are 'representative'. In other words, where the issue is x, pick one or two representatives who will be portrayed as pro-x, one or two representatives who will be portrayed as anti-x, and the remaining representatives from unconnected areas of public life who will be perceived as having no axe to grind in any contest between pro-s and anti-s. The Europe review included two Europhiles (Stephen Wall and Lucy Armstrong), and two Euro-sceptics (Rodney Leach, Nigel Smith). The business report includes two notionally pro-business members (Alan Budd; Chris Bones) and two notional skeptics (Barbara Stocking; John Naughton).
  3. Quantitative research is commissioned. All reviews so far have carried out content analysis: one by John Morrison (former BBC Television news editor) on the EU; one by Loughborough University on Israel-Palestine; and one now by Leeds University.
  4. ... and then deprecated. The Loughborough report found that the BBC tended to give more screen-time over to Israeli representatives than Palestinian representatives; due, argue the authors, to the weaker development of Palestinian civil society and its correspondingly lower capacity to provide vox-pops. This finding of a 'direction' of partiality was smoothed over in the report.
  5. 'Greater understanding' emerges as a common solution. Both EU and Israel-Palestine reports found fault, not with the direction of partiality, but the problems for impartiality of insufficiently deep coverage. In other words, a verdict that any side can interpret as favouring its position, since, ultimately, the historical record, as interpreted by the dogmatic reader, tends to favour the dogmatic reader.